How to Compare Subsidy Data Across Fiscal Years
August 28, 2026
One of the most informative things you can do with USDA payment data is compare totals across years. Year-over-year changes in payment volumes can reveal the impact of commodity price cycles, drought years, new farm bill provisions, and emergency programs. But you need to know what to look for.
What drives year-to-year changes
The most common drivers of significant year-over-year payment changes are:
- Commodity prices — when corn, soybean, or wheat prices fall below ARC benchmarks or PLC reference prices, program payments increase dramatically. Rising prices reduce or eliminate payments.
- Drought and disaster — severe drought activates LFP payments; major weather events trigger disaster programs. Payment spikes in specific states often reflect disaster events.
- Emergency programs — Congress occasionally passes supplemental farm assistance outside the regular farm bill structure (e.g., MFP during the trade war, pandemic-related payments in FY2020–2021). These show up as new or unusually large CFDA payments.
- Farm bill transitions — when a new farm bill takes effect, program structures and payment rates change. This can cause apparent discontinuities in year-over-year comparisons.
How to use SubsidyLookup for year comparisons
The year index shows national payment totals by fiscal year. Clicking a year shows the top states and programs for that year, letting you identify whether a high-payment year was driven by commodity programs, disaster programs, or something else. State pages also show year-over-year trends, letting you identify whether state-level changes track national patterns or reflect local conditions.
Adjusting for inflation
SubsidyLookup shows nominal dollar totals, not inflation-adjusted figures. When comparing FY2005 totals to FY2023 totals, keep in mind that the purchasing power of the dollar has changed. For long-term comparisons, consider indexing to a consistent price year using USDA's own price indices.